Roar of the Tiger
Sunday, March 30th, 2008We’re past the point of the season where we dismiss certain phenomena as statistical flukes. With 25% of the season gone and the 33% mark fast approaching, the standings and the league leaders deserve some serious consideration. In that respect, I’d like to announce the return of the Detroit Tigers. The 1984 World Champs are officially back, and their perch atop the American League is not nearly as temporary of a position as most people think.
If baseball teaches us anything on a daily basis, it’s that we know absolutely nothing. After all, the ball bounces where it wants to bounce (or where the Baseball Gods tell it to bounce, if you believe in that sort of thing). Every year, we’re “surprised” by certain players or teams, but really, we just weren’t paying close enough attention. Albert Pujols has 22 home runs this year, and it’s not even June. Are people really that surprised Pujols would eventually do something like this?
If they are, they shouldn’t be, and nobody should be surprised by a Detroit presence in the American League playoffs this year, either. The Tigers’ AL Central roommate, the Chicago White Sox, “surprised” the baseball world last year and won the World Series. Was Chicago’s championship run all that unpredictable? In 2004, the White Sox won 51.2% of their games (missing the playoffs), scoring 865 runs and allowing 831. Their team ERA was 4.91 and the team WHIP was 1.42. The offense provided 242 home runs, a .333 OBP, and a .457 slugging percentage.
Fast forward to 2005, when the White Sox won 61.1% of their games, scored 741 runs, and allowed 645 runs. That White Sox team had an ERA of 3.61 and a team WHIP of 1.25. The offense provided 200 home runs, a .322 OBP, and a .425 slugging percentage. The change from the end of 2004 to the end of 2005: W-L %, 19.2%; RS, -14.3%; RA, -22.4%; ERA, -26.5%; WHIP, -11.6%. HR, -17.4%, OBP -3.3%, SLG -7%. So clearly, the White Sox won with pitching, pitching, pitching. The decrease in runs and home runs isn’t a good thing, but that didn’t seem to stop their stable of aces from running wild on the Red Sox, Angels, and Astros.
Now on to the subject, the Detroit Tigers. In 2005, the Tiggers won 43.8% of their games, scoring 723 runs and allowing 787. The team ERA was 4.51 with a WHIP of 1.37. The offense slugged .428 with a .321 OBP, hitting 168 home runs. Now of course, we can’t do a direct comparison of the White Sox and Tigers because the 2006 Tigers (as of Sunday May 21) have played 42 games. But the sample size (26%) is large enough, and by utilizing the Pythagorean W-L calculation, we can guesstimate the 2006 Tigers’ end result with pretty reliable accuracy. The ERA and WHIP may not stay where they are, but they shouldn’t deviate too far either.
So far in 2006, the Tigers have won 66.7% of their games, scoring 209 runs and allowing 149 runs (that’s the best run differential in MLB). The team ERA is 3.34 and the team WHIP is 1.21. The team has already hit 62 home runs and sports a .333 OBP and a .475 slugging percentage. Projected over a 162-game season, the Tigers will score 806 runs and give up 575 runs while hitting 239 home runs. Their Pythagorean W-L% will be 65.0%. Again, these are estimates based on 42 games, but they aren’t baseless. Let’s look at the delta.
The Tigers change in W-L% from 2005 would be 48.3%. Their runs scored would increase by 11.5% while their runs allowed would decrease by 27.0%. The team ERA would drop by 25.9% and the team WHIP would drop by 11.6%. The team would hit 42.3% more home runs, increase OBP by 3.7%, and increase SLG by 11.0%. Looking back on the 2005 White Sox, they decreased their runs allowed by 22.4%, ERA by 26.5%, and WHIP by 11.6%.
Will the Tigers win 105 games? Probably not. But they should win 95 games and take one of the two playoff spots available to them. The year-over-year change in their projected numbers, particularly RA, ERA, and WHIP are strikingly similar to last year’s World Champs. The Tigers roar once more.